Overview | At a Glance | Research | Blogs
Overview
China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 to improve connectivity and cooperation on a transcontinental scale.
Quantifying the impacts of the initiative is a major challenge, which is why the World Bank Group has produced empirical research and economic models that assess the opportunities and risks of BRI projects.
Since May 2018, the World Bank Group has produced a series of 19 background papers (available below) and that provide independent analysis of the BRI¡¯s links to trade, investment, debt, procurement, environment, poverty reduction and infrastructure.
Our research presents data that enables policymakers in countries along BRI corridors to make evidence-based assessments of how to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks of participating in the BRI. The research also aims to inform the public debates surrounding BRI, by grounding the discussion in data and analysis.
At a Glance
How big is the Belt and Road Initiative?
China has presented the BRI as an open arrangement in which all countries are welcome to participate. However, an official list of participating countries does not yet exist.
In our research we have focused on 71 economies geographically located along BRI transport corridors, including China. In 2017, these economies received 35% of global foreign direct investments and accounted for 40% of global merchandise exports.
How much does the initiative cost?
For the 70 BRI ¡°corridor economies¡± (excluding China), projects in all sectors that are already executed, in implementation, or planned are estimated to amount to US$575 billion.
What potential opportunities does the initiative present?
If completed, BRI transport projects could reduce travel times along economic corridors by 12%, increase trade between 2.7% and 9.7%, increase income by up to 3.4% and lift 7.6 million people from extreme poverty.
What risks are involved with BRI projects?
The BRI presents risks common to many major infrastructure projects: debt risks, governance risks (corruption and procurement), stranded infrastructure, environmental risks and social risks.
What needs to happen for the initiative to succeed?
BRI transport projects have the potential to substantially improve trade, foreign investment, and living conditions for citizens in participating countries¡ªbut only if China and other corridor economies adopt deeper policy reforms that increase transparency, expand trade, improve debt sustainability and mitigate environmental, social and corruption risks.
Research
, Bandiera, Tsiropoulos; June 2019 (English)
, De Soyres, Francois; Mulabdic, Alen; Ruta, Michele; April 2019 (English)
, Bird, Julia Helen; Lebrand, Mathilde Sylvie Maria; Venables, Anthony J.; April 2019 (English)
, Maliszewska, Maryla; Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, April 2019 (English)
, Lall, Somik V.; Lebrand, Mathilde Sylvie Maria; April 2019 (English)
, Reed, Tristan; Trubetskoy, Alexandr; April 2019 (English)
, Losos, Elizabeth Claire; Pfaff, Alexander;Olander, Lydia Pauline; Mason, Sara; Morgan, Seth; January 2019 (English)
Kher, Priyanka; Tran, Trang Thu; January 2019 (English)
, Baniya, Suprabha; Rocha Gaffurri, Nadia Patrizia; Ruta, Michele; January 2019 (English)
, Constantinescu, Ileana Cristina; Ruta, Michele; December 2018 (English)
, Wiederer, Christina Katharina, December 2018 (English)
, Ghossein, Tania; Hoekman, Ronald; Shindal, Anirudh; World Bank Group, December 2018 (English)
De Soyres, Francois Michel Marie Raphael, World Bank Group, October 2018 (English)
Fran?ois de Soyres, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, World Bank Group, October 2018 (English)
Maggie Xiaoyang Chen and Chuanhao Lin, October 2018
, Charles Kunaka, Ben Joseph Romain Derudder, and Xingjian Liu, October 2018
, Marcus Bartley Johns, September 2018
, Paulo Bastos, World Bank Group, June 2018
, Mauro Boffa, World Bank Group, May 2018
Blogs
, Martin Raiser and Michele Ruta, June 2019
, Indermit Gill, Somik V. Lall, and Mathilde Lebrand, June 2019
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