Located on Africa’s west coast, Togo is bordered by Ghana, Benin, and Burkina Faso and is home to approximately 8.5 million people. Poverty rate is significantly higher in rural areas (58.8%) compared to urban areas (26.5%).
This is largely due to concentrated economic growth in the modern sectors and limited access to quality services. Poverty is higher in female-headed households (45.7%) than in male-headed households (45.2%). Women remain more vulnerable, as they have less access to economic opportunities, education, health, and other basic socioeconomic facilities.
Togo’s score on the human capital index (HCI) is 0.43. This means that children born in Togo today will be only 43% as productive when they grow up as they could be if they had access to good healthcare, education, and nutrition.
Political Context
For several years, Togo's political landscape has been dominated by the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party. A significant change occurred with the adoption of a new constitution on March 25, 2024, enacted by the President of the Republic (PR) on May 6, 2024, marking Togo's entry into its fifth republic, transitioning the country from a semi-presidential to a parliamentary system. Under the new system, the PR will hold ceremonial powers, while the President of the Council with a 6-year renewable term and chosen from the majority party in Parliament, will govern with full decision-making and civil and military appointment authority. The new National Assembly was inaugurated on May 21, 2024, following elections largely won by UNIR, raking 108 seats against 5 for the opposition (in the legislatives), and 137 seats against 42 for the opposition (in regional elections).
On August 21, 2024, a new 35-member caretaker government was appointed, led by Prime Minister Victoire Dogbe. This government will oversee the transition until the full installation of institutions of the fifth republic.
Economic Overview
Despite enduring shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic, Togo’s economy has shown resilience, with growth averaging 6.1% between 2021 and 2023, thanks in part to fiscal stimulus measures. However, high inflation and disparities in economic opportunities between rural and urban areas have continued to hinder progress in reducing poverty and inequality. The government has now embarked on a fiscal consolidation strategy to bring the deficit back to 3% of GDP by 2025, while simultaneously pursuing structural reforms to boost private investment and job creation, embracing climate-smart agricultural practices.
Growth is expected to moderate to an estimated 5.3% in 2024, reflecting fiscal consolidation efforts, weak global demand, and regional uncertainties. The fiscal deficit will decline to 6.1% of GDP in 2024 (4.5% excluding the recapitalization of the Union togolaise de banque [UTB]), driven by cuts in public expenditures, particularly capital spending, as well as revenue mobilization efforts. The impact of fiscal consolidation measures on activity should be partially offset by a recovery in consumer spending, supported by abating inflation, while private investment is bolstered by the development of the Adétikopé Industrial Platform (PIA). On the supply side, while industrial activity has shown signs of deceleration in the context of slowing external demand, a robust agricultural season and sustained services sector activity have helped support activity.
Growth is expected to strengthen gradually, reaching 5.4% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026. This modest acceleration will be supported by ongoing and planned private investment projects and a recovery in consumer spending as inflationary pressures continue to taper down. As the global economy regains some strength in 2025, exports should provide an additional boost while public investment is expected to pick up again in 2026. The poverty rate should gradually decline to 23.5% in 2026 (international definition), supported by rising GDP per capita and easing inflation.
Last Updated: Oct 08, 2024
